კონფერენცია

∘ Vladimer Sulaberidze ∘
EVOLUTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE IN GEORGIA

Summary

The article discusses the evolution of the age-sex structure of the population of Georgia for 120 (1897-2015) years. Formation of structures of 1897-1959 was undergoing severe social and economic conditions during the First and Second World War and Georgia’s independence periods, which resulted in a large number of people being sacrificed. Contrast political, socio-economic and demographic processes happened during period of 55 year after 1959 had a substantial impact on 2002 and especially on the demographic structure of 2015. The two generations of this period had given different contributions for the demographic development of the country. During the period of 1959-1992 the natural increase of population exceeded the negative balance of migration, which led to the increase in population. At the same time rapid reduction of birth rate and slow growth of mortality, characteristic to the third phase of population reshuffle, would provide low level of expanded population reserve. Evolution of demographic structure has been more stable in accordance with the entire above-mentioned and remained stable according to UN scrutiny. Since 1992, the political and socio-economic negative events in the country have drawn demographic processes and the demographic situation has worsened.

This is the transition period from modern to the latest type of reproduction and the spread of liberal-democratic values of demographic behavior characteristic to the second demographic transition.

All the above-mentioned brought the level of natural growth to zero in 1995-2007, and the net coefficient of population resettlement came to the 1 (2005-2007) from 1999 year and marked the beginning of the depopulation. In the same period, according to the gross population coefficient, in the demographic structure of population there will be 35% less women who will came into mother age. It should be noted that the zero level of natural growth of the population has not had any impact on the demographic structure that had high levels of emigration of the population. In 1992-2015, nearly 1700 thousand people has left the country. The demographic structures of 2002 and 2015 have deteriorated in comparison with the demographic structures of 1959-1989. The point is that in the 1959-1990 years, Georgia was characterized by a negative emigration balance that reached 200 thousand people in this period, but in the medium level of natural growth it did not influence much on the worsening of the 1979 and 1989 demographic structures.

The population of Georgia in 1959-2002 according to M. Shelia calculation, the growth of population over 60 years resulted in the aging for 6 years and according to A. Sulaberidze calculations the population over 65 years in 1960-2014 for 6,7 years. As for the working age groups, their share is more or less stable within 60%. In terms of demographic development, the most favorable demographic structure to increase the level of birth in 1959-2015 was in 1970, when population under age 15 was 30.5%. In contrast, the similar indicator of the demographic structure of 2015 indicates the trend of decreased birth rate. According to the United Nations data, an unprecedented demographic structure is expected in the near future. By 2030, the share of 15 years old will be reduced to 14.3% and that of those over 65 years will be increased to 21.9% The share of the working population will be also decreased at the level of 1959 (63.8%). Thus, the evolution of the demographic structure of Georgia for 120 years was different in different periods; on the one hand it was defined by demographic processes, on the other hand, undemographic factors. It was changed in 1989 by the regressive type, and by 2015 it became worse in terms of political, demographic and socio-economic security in the country and became undesirable regressive structure. The problem is aggravated by the fact that in the latest perspective (2030) is expected the depopulation, and due to high intensity of aging the demographic load will be increased and it will be socially and economically tense.

Thus, in the years following 1959, two generations did not fulfill their demographic mission and brought the country to depopulation.

Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Paata Gugushvili Institute of Economics International Scientific C O N F E R E N C E S "ECONOMY – XXI CENTURY"

E ISSN 2587 - 4691	∘ Vladimer Sulaberidze ∘ EVOLUTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE IN GEORGIA Summary The article discusses the evolution of the age-sex structure of the population of Georgia for 120 (1897-2015) years. Formation of structures of 1897-1959 was undergoing severe social and economic conditions during the First and Second World War and Georgia’s independence periods, which resulted in a large number of people being sacrificed. Contrast political, socio-economic and demographic processes happened during period of 55 year after 1959 had a substantial impact on 2002 and especially on the demographic structure of 2015. The two generations of this period had given different contributions for the demographic development of the country. During the period of 1959-1992 the natural increase of population exceeded the negative balance of migration, which led to the increase in population. At the same time rapid reduction of birth rate and slow growth of mortality, characteristic to the third phase of population reshuffle, would provide low level of expanded population reserve. Evolution of demographic structure has been more stable in accordance with the entire above-mentioned and remained stable according to UN scrutiny. Since 1992, the political and socio-economic negative events in the country have drawn demographic processes and the demographic situation has worsened. This is the transition period from modern to the latest type of reproduction and the spread of liberal-democratic values of demographic behavior characteristic to the second demographic transition. All the above-mentioned brought the level of natural growth to zero in 1995-2007, and the net coefficient of population resettlement came to the 1 (2005-2007) from 1999 year and marked the beginning of the depopulation. In the same period, according to the gross population coefficient, in the demographic structure of population there will be 35% less women who will came into mother age. It should be noted that the zero level of natural growth of the population has not had any impact on the demographic structure that had high levels of emigration of the population. In 1992-2015, nearly 1700 thousand people has left the country. The demographic structures of 2002 and 2015 have deteriorated in comparison with the demographic structures of 1959-1989. The point is that in the 1959-1990 years, Georgia was characterized by a negative emigration balance that reached 200 thousand people in this period, but in the medium level of natural growth it did not influence much on the worsening of the 1979 and 1989 demographic structures. The population of Georgia in 1959-2002 according to M. Shelia calculation, the growth of population over 60 years resulted in the aging for 6 years and according to A. Sulaberidze calculations the population over 65 years in 1960-2014 for 6,7 years. As for the working age groups, their share is more or less stable within 60%. In terms of demographic development, the most favorable demographic structure to increase the level of birth in 1959-2015 was in 1970, when population under age 15 was 30.5%. In contrast, the similar indicator of the demographic structure of 2015 indicates the trend of decreased birth rate. According to the United Nations data, an unprecedented demographic structure is expected in the near future. By 2030, the share of 15 years old will be reduced to 14.3% and that of those over 65 years will be increased to 21.9% The share of the working population will be also decreased at the level of 1959 (63.8%). Thus, the evolution of the demographic structure of Georgia for 120 years was different in different periods; on the one hand it was defined by demographic processes, on the other hand, undemographic factors. It was changed in 1989 by the regressive type, and by 2015 it became worse in terms of political, demographic and socio-economic security in the country and became undesirable regressive structure. The problem is aggravated by the fact that in the latest perspective (2030) is expected the depopulation, and due to high intensity of aging the demographic load will be increased and it will be socially and economically tense. Thus, in the years following 1959, two generations did not fulfill their demographic mission and brought the country to depopulation.